this is the Age of the Incredible Shrinking Everything. Home prices, the stock market, G.D.P., corporate profits, employment: they’re all a fraction of what they once were. Yet amid this carnage there is one thing that, surprisingly, has continued to grow: the paycheck of the average worker. Companies are slashing payrolls: 3.6 million people have lost their jobs since the recession started, with half of those getting laid off in just the past three months. Yet average hourly wages jumped almost four per cent in the past year. It’s harder and harder to find and keep a job, but if you’ve got one you may well be making more than you did twelve months ago.

This combination of rising unemployment and higher wages seems improbable. But, as it turns out, it’s what history would lead us to expect. Even during the early years of the Great Depression, manufacturing workers actually saw their real wages rise, and wage cuts have been scarce in every recession since. Oil and wheat prices may rise and fall instantaneously to reflect supply and demand, but wages are “sticky”: even when the economy goes bad, it takes a lot to make them fall.

It’s not because businesses are generous that wages are sticky; it’s because employers are worried. In part, bosses are afraid of what economists call “adverse selection”: if they cut wages, it’s the least productive workers who would be the most likely to stay, while the best workers would start looking elsewhere. (Even in a weak economy, businesses still compete for talent.) In a 1997 study of almost two hundred employers, the economists Carl Campbell and Kunal Kamlani found that the threat of losing their best employees was a major reason that bosses didn’t cut wages.

Even more important is the impact of wage cuts on morale. After the 1990-91 recession, the economist Truman Bewley interviewed managers and labor officials at more than two hundred companies and found that most believed that wage cuts wreck employee morale and eat away at productivity. Whatever money they’d save by cutting wages, bosses assume, would be cancelled out by the decline in effort and the breakdown of trust that wage cuts would create. Not everyone believes this: in the past month, both Hewlett-Packard and FedEx have announced plans for pay cuts. But generally, when sales and profits drop, wages aren’t cut, even in firms undergoing layoffs. Of course, layoffs don’t exactly help morale, but, as one of the bosses that Bewley interviewed coldly put it, they “get the misery out the door.” Cutting wages keeps the misery around.

Today’s sticky wages aren’t just the result of custom, though. They’ve also stayed high because of the most unusual aspect of this recession: even as the economy has cratered, American workers have become more productive, not less. Productivity—how much output workers produce per hour of work—is the key to a healthy economy. Historically, productivity has been “procyclical”: it rose during booms and fell during recessions. But not this time. Even as the economy did a cliff dive in the last quarter, productivity rose an impressive 3.1 per cent. And since, in theory, workers get paid more the more productive they are, their increased productivity has helped them avoid pay cuts.

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In times as grim as these, stable wages and higher productivity seem like good things. But they come at a price. The reason that companies have remained so productive despite the slowdown has a lot to do with one of the most celebrated efficiency gains of recent years: the so-called just-in-time economy. In past recessions, companies often delayed firing people, because, in their uncertainty over the precise state of their business, they preferred to keep people around rather than go to the trouble of firing them and having to hire replacements later. In economist-speak, companies “hoarded labor.” But during the past two decades companies have got significantly better at responding quickly to changes in the marketplace. Retailers carry less inventory; manufacturers have shorter lead times on production. This made the system as a whole more efficient, and each individual worker more productive. But it has also made redundant workers more expendable, and labor hoarding a thing of the past.

Bad times have always meant job losses, of course. But what’s distinctive about the speed and depth of today’s job cuts is that, even before the recession hit, American companies were, by historical standards, running lean operations. While the economy grew at a respectable rate for much of this decade, hiring did not. So one might have thought that companies would have had less room to slash payrolls, since they were already relatively slim. Instead, the same companies that were slow to hire after the last recession have been fast to fire during this one. G.D.P., after all, actually grew for much of 2008. Yet every month companies were cutting jobs. And after the credit crisis erupted, in September, companies wasted no time: as fast as consumer spending was plummeting, businesses were cutting payrolls even more aggressively. Companies have always wanted to do more with less; nowadays it’s a positive obsession.

For the employed, then, this recession may be less than awful—if, that is, you can forget about the value of your home and your 401(k). But the very factors that benefit people with jobs—higher productivity and sticky wages—make prospects bleaker for those without them. That’s one reason that it was important for the stimulus package to extend and increase unemployment benefits, as well as create jobs. We’re a more productive, more efficient economy than ever, but that’s cold comfort when you’re on the dole.

這是一個一切都縮水的時代
，房地產價格，股票市場，GDP，公司利潤，就業率：這(zhe)些(xie)通(tong)通(tong)都(dou)變(bian)成(cheng)了(le)曾(zeng)經(jing)的(de)一(yi)小(xiao)部(bu)分(fen)。令(ling)人(ren)驚(jing)奇(qi)的(de)是(shi)，在(zai)這(zhe)場(chang)大(da)衰(shuai)退(tui)中(zhong)
，有(you)一(yi)項(xiang)東(dong)西(xi)繼(ji)續(xu)在(zai)增(zeng)長(chang)，那(na)就(jiu)是(shi)熟(shu)練(lian)工(gong)人(ren)的(de)薪(xin)水(shui)。公(gong)司(si)縮(suo)減(jian)了(le)工(gong)資(zi)名(ming)單(dan)：自從經濟衰退開始，已經有360萬人失業，其中一半人是在剛剛過去的三個月裏丟掉了工作。然而
，平均每小時的工資在去年增長了差不多4%。找工作變得越來越難，但是如果你已經有一份工作的話，你可能比十二個月以前掙得更多。

這zhe種zhong高gao失shi業ye率lv和he高gao工gong資zi的de組zu合he看kan起qi來lai有you些xie不bu可ke思si議yi，但dan是shi，這zhe是shi被bei曆li史shi所suo證zheng明ming的de事shi實shi。即ji使shi在zai上shang世shi紀ji的de大da蕭xiao條tiao時shi期qi
，產chan業ye工gong人ren的de工gong資zi也ye是shi在zai上shang漲zhang的de
，在zai衰shuai退tui時shi減jian薪xin是shi罕han見jian的de。石shi油you和he小xiao麥mai的de價jia格ge會hui隨sui著zhe供gong求qiu關guan係xi的de變bian化hua而er變bian化hua，但dan是shi工gong資zi是shi“剛性的”：即使當經濟形勢不好的時候
，想要讓降薪也是很困難的。

工資的“剛性”並不是因為商人慷慨
，這是因為雇主擔心被經濟學家稱為的“逆向選擇”：一旦降薪，越平庸的工人越可能留下
，而越是出色的工人越可能跳槽。（即使是在經濟形勢不好的時候，商業的競爭就是人才的競爭。）在 1997年的一項研究中

，經濟學家Carl Campbell 和Kunal Kamlani 發現老板不去降薪最大的原因就是怕失去他們最好的員工。

更重要的是降薪會影響士氣。經曆1990到1991年的衰退之後，經濟學家Truman Bewley 和超過200家(jia)公(gong)司(si)的(de)經(jing)理(li)和(he)人(ren)事(shi)主(zhu)管(guan)麵(mian)談(tan)之(zhi)後(hou)發(fa)現(xian)大(da)多(duo)數(shu)人(ren)認(ren)為(wei)降(jiang)薪(xin)會(hui)有(you)損(sun)士(shi)氣(qi)並(bing)最(zui)終(zhong)影(ying)響(xiang)生(sheng)產(chan)。老(lao)板(ban)們(men)認(ren)為(wei)降(jiang)薪(xin)省(sheng)下(xia)來(lai)的(de)開(kai)支(zhi)會(hui)被(bei)降(jiang)薪(xin)所(suo)引(yin)發(fa)的(de)工(gong)作(zuo)效(xiao)率(lv)和(he)信(xin)任(ren)的(de)減(jian)損(sun)所(suo)抵(di)消(xiao)。並(bing)不(bu)是(shi)每(mei)個(ge)老(lao)板(ban)都(dou)相(xiang)信(xin)這(zhe)一(yi)套(tao)，上(shang)個(ge)月(yue)Hewlett-Packard 和 FedEx 兩(liang)家(jia)公(gong)司(si)就(jiu)宣(xuan)布(bu)降(jiang)薪(xin)。但(dan)是(shi)，一(yi)般(ban)來(lai)說(shuo)當(dang)銷(xiao)售(shou)和(he)利(li)潤(run)下(xia)降(jiang)的(de)時(shi)候(hou)，即(ji)使(shi)去(qu)裁(cai)員(yuan)也(ye)不(bu)能(neng)降(jiang)薪(xin)。當(dang)然(ran)，裁(cai)員(yuan)對(dui)士(shi)氣(qi)也(ye)沒(mei)好(hao)處(chu)，但(dan)是(shi)正(zheng)如(ru)一(yi)個(ge)老(lao)板(ban)Bewley在采訪中所說的那樣“裁員的苦惱在公司外，降薪的苦惱在公司內部。”

雖然如今工資的剛性並不僅僅是慣例的結果，水平的工資是又有經濟衰退期不尋常的景象所致：經濟衰退時
，美國工人的工作效率更高了
，而不是更低。生產效率（工人每小時的產出）是(shi)健(jian)康(kang)經(jing)濟(ji)的(de)關(guan)鍵(jian)。從(cong)曆(li)史(shi)的(de)角(jiao)度(du)看(kan)
，工(gong)作(zuo)效(xiao)率(lv)是(shi)循(xun)環(huan)的(de)
，經(jing)濟(ji)繁(fan)榮(rong)是(shi)增(zeng)長(chang)，經(jing)濟(ji)衰(shuai)退(tui)時(shi)下(xia)降(jiang)。但(dan)這(zhe)次(ci)不(bu)是(shi)
，即(ji)使(shi)經(jing)濟(ji)在(zai)上(shang)個(ge)季(ji)度(du)跳(tiao)水(shui)的(de)時(shi)候(hou)，生(sheng)產(chan)效(xiao)率(lv)還(hai)是(shi)增(zeng)長(chang)了(le)3.1%。理論上講，工人效率越高工資越高，正是生產效率的提高避免了減薪。

在如此嚴酷的時期內
，穩定的工資和高效率也是好的。但這也是有代價的，公司在衰退中保持高效率和近年來取得的一項成果有關：它被稱為“及時經濟”(“just-in-time economy”)，zaiyiwangdeshuaituizhong，gongsichangchangtuichicaiyuan
，yinweitamenduigongsidezhuangkuanghaibushihenqueding，tamenbayuangongliuxialaiyimianxianrujintiancaiyuanmingtianjiuyaogurendaitidemafanzhizhong。yongjingjixueshuyujiaogongsichubeilaodongli。danshizaiguoquershinianjian，gongsiduishichangbianhuacaiqugengweixunsudefanyinghuigenghaoyixie。lingshoushangshaocunhuo
，zhizaoshangsuoduanzhizaozhouqi。zheshixitongzuoweiyigezhengtigengjiayouxiaolv，meigegongrengengjiayougongzuoxiaolv。danzheshideduoyudegongrenyuefaanggui，cunxulaodonglichengweiguoqu。

當(dang)然(ran)，衰(shuai)退(tui)期(qi)意(yi)味(wei)著(zhe)失(shi)業(ye)。但(dan)是(shi)區(qu)別(bie)在(zai)於(yu)裁(cai)員(yuan)速(su)度(du)和(he)深(shen)度(du)，以(yi)前(qian)當(dang)經(jing)濟(ji)衰(shuai)弱(ruo)襲(xi)來(lai)，美(mei)國(guo)公(gong)司(si)都(dou)保(bao)持(chi)最(zui)少(shao)雇(gu)員(yuan)的(de)運(yun)轉(zhuan)。而(er)經(jing)濟(ji)在(zai)這(zhe)個(ge)十(shi)年(nian)大(da)部(bu)分(fen)都(dou)保(bao)持(chi)了(le)增(zeng)長(chang)。但(dan)是(shi)工(gong)作(zuo)卻(que)沒(mei)有(you)增(zeng)長(chang)。所(suo)以(yi)有(you)人(ren)會(hui)認(ren)為(wei)公(gong)司(si)們(men)已(yi)經(jing)沒(mei)有(you)空(kong)間(jian)在(zai)縮(suo)減(jian)他(ta)們(men)的(de)工(gong)資(zi)單(dan)了(le)，因(yin)為(wei)他(ta)們(men)已(yi)經(jing)很(hen)“瘦”了。相反
，上一次衰退事裁員速度很慢的公司這次裁員都很快。畢竟，GDP在08年nian實shi際ji上shang增zeng長chang了le，但dan是shi每mei月yue都dou有you公gong司si在zai裁cai員yuan。信xin用yong危wei機ji九jiu月yue爆bao發fa之zhi後hou，公gong司si們men沒mei有you浪lang費fei時shi間jian，和he消xiao費fei者zhe縮suo減jian花hua費fei一yi樣yang快kuai，公gong司si裁cai員yuan甚shen至zhi更geng為wei猛meng烈lie。公gong司si想xiang要yao做zuo更geng多duo

，如ru今jin這zhe是shi一yi個ge積ji極ji的de思si想xiang。

對於那些有工作的人來說
，這次經濟衰退還沒那麼可怕
，至少可以讓你忘卻房子和汽油的價格。但是正是使得有工作的人收益的因素——高效率和剛性工資——使shi得de失shi業ye者zhe的de前qian景jing更geng加jia暗an淡dan。這zhe也ye正zheng是shi增zeng加jia失shi業ye者zhe福fu利li和he創chuang造zao就jiu業ye機ji會hui重zhong要yao的de原yuan因yin。我wo們men比bi以yi往wang更geng有you效xiao率lv，但dan是shi對dui於yu那na些xie領ling取qu失shi業ye救jiu濟ji金jin的de人ren來lai說shuo起qi不bu到dao任ren何he安an慰wei作zuo用yong。

金融危機來襲，為什麼老板們選擇裁員而不是降薪？為什麼經濟大蕭條薪水反漲？著篇文章告訴你答案。